Here's what a Trump presidency could mean for Asia's security and economy by Amanda Macias and Elena Holodny on Jul 26, 2016, 3:33 PM Advertisement
 In a July global markets research report, Nomura analysts described the potential impacts on Asia's economy and security under a Trump presidency. Nomura's "what if" exercise uses Donald Trump's main campaign pledges to assess risks from protectionism, regional security, and US macro policy. "A Trump presidency would no doubt hurt Asia's GDP growth and could ultimately drive cost-push inflation, impart smaller trade surpluses, and looser macroeconomic policies," Nomura analysts wrote. Because Trump has said conflicting things during his path to securing the Republican presidential nomination, it's hard to actually predict what will happen. But it's interesting to consider some possibilities. China and the US could see some trade friction — although analysts believe the overall economic impact would be limited.  Nomura analysts assign a "high probability" to the possibility of Trump declaring China a currency manipulator and to his pursuing more aggressive trade policies. They also note that geopolitical tensions could increase. "In short, a Trump presidency may lead to a smaller trade surplus and more capital outflows due to increased trade frictions and geopolitical risks in the region," Nomura analysts Yang Zhao, Wendy Chen, and Chang Chun Hua said. "However, we believe the impact should be limited, as China and the US have more common interests than conflicts in the region." Plus, while they note that a trade war is "possible," they note that the potential for a "full trade war is low." And even if there is one, they said, "it would unlikely lead to a collapse of fundamental cooperation between the two nations."
The Philippines' economy "stands to lose the most" in Southeast Asia in a Trump presidency.  "In Southeast Asia, we believe the Philippines' economy stands to lose the most if Mr. Trump wins the presidency," Nomura's Euben Paracuelles, Brian Tan, and Lavanya Venkateswaran said. On the economic front, they said, "if US immigration policies tighten, leading to fewer migrant workers, this could impact remittances inflows back to the Philippines." "The US is host to 34.5% of the total overseas Filipino population, and we estimate accounts for about 31% of total worker remittances," they added. Trump's stance on bringing more jobs back to the US could affect "important business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, which caters mostly to US corporates and now brings in FX revenues that are projected to equal the size of total worker remittances (about 9% of GDP) in the next couple of years," they said. In terms of regional security, the US functions as the largest ally for the Philippines. A lack of US military presence in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, coupled with further Chinese aggression, could leave Manila vulnerable despite the Permanent Court of Arbitration's landmark ruling. On the positive side, the Filipino economy is likely strong enough to weather shocks, according to Nomura. "In particular, the new government is planning significant fiscal expansion to support public infrastructure spending."
Taiwan could get hit by Trump's anti-TTP position, and security risks could rise if the US military withdraws from Japan and Korea.  Trump has suggested that as president he would penalize countries he considers currency manipulators. "Taiwan could become one of his targets given the US government's long-standing concerns over Taiwan's currency practices," Nomura's Young Sun Kwon and Minoru Nogimori said. In terms of regional security, if the US withdrew from Japan and South Korea, Taiwan could become vulnerable to North Korean and Chinese threats.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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