What if your boss acted like this?

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INSIDER Jun 30, 2020  |  View in Browser
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With Henry Blodget and David Plotz

Hello, everyone! Welcome to the new edition of Insider Today. Please sign up here.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"There was no sense of 'Team America' in the conversations...It was like the United States had disappeared. It was always 'Just me'." — an anonymous Trump administration official, describing Trump's phone calls with foreign leaders, according to a CNN report.


WHAT'S HAPPENING

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  • The European Union officially banned US visitors. American citizens are barred until the US controls its COVID-19 outbreak, as are citizens from most of the world, including Brazil and Russia,  
  • China imposed a sweeping, draconian new security law on Hong Kong. The text of the law is still secret, but it clearly will give China the power to punish and imprison protesters, perhaps even retroactively. Hong Kong democracy activists are already resigning from organizations and erasing social media accounts. 
  • The president was briefed on Russian/Taliban bounty killings. According to news reports, his daily briefing in February described the Russian sabotage campaign, but White House officials deny he was told about it. 
  • Trump's phone calls with world leaders are "delusional." A devastating CNN article cites Trump's own staffers describing how the President fails to prepare for calls, gets played by Putin and Erdogan, insults Merkel, and endangers US national security. 
  • Carl Reiner died at age 98. The comedy legend teamed with Mel Brooks and Sid Caesar, helped create the modern sitcom, directed a bunch of great comic films (including The Jerk), and was a pretty good actor too.

VIEWS OF THE DAY

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Imagine you had a boss like Donald Trump. 

Imagine your boss did this: 

You send him a memo about a life-or-death issue for the company, and he doesn't read it. He has regular calls with firms you're doing deals with, but he doesn't prepare for them, and instead spends the whole call talking about himself, or insulting the person he's talking to. He commits an egregious, humiliating screw-up one morning, then turns his phone off and plays golf, leaving everyone else to clean up the mess.

These are not hypothetical examples. This is quite literally an account — taken from a single day! — of how Donald Trump does the job we hired him to do, and that we pay him to do. 

In the last 24 hours, we learned that his Presidential Daily Briefing did highlight the shocking Russian murder-for-hire program and the American soldiers killed by it, but the president doesn't read the daily briefing. Even though the briefing summarizes the most important threats facing the United States, the country he runs. 

In the last 24 hours, we also learned that Trump doesn't prepare for his calls with other world leaders, which have enabled them to gull, outfox, and manipulate him. The president, whose primary job is safeguarding national security, is so incompetent that he's viewed as a threat by his own staff. (Oh, and he also spends much of his time on the calls belittling the leaders of America's allies, especially if they're women.) 

In the last 24 hours, we also learned that the president went dark after retweeting a video of his supporters yelling "white power." He headed off to play golf, and no one could reach him. His own top aides say they could not find the President of the United States for three hours. You're probably not the president of any country, and you probably don't have a security detail, but I bet your colleagues could track you down in less than three hours, even on a Sunday morning. 

None of these episodes even concerns what Donald Trump does as president. They have nothing to do with the shameful mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, for example. They are just three examples from a single day of how he does his job. 

We all know what would happen to a boss who behaved like this in any regular workplace. He'd be out in hours, fired by the board and sued by shareholders. — DP

A national "mask mandate" could save 5% of GDP

Everyone's sick of lockdowns, especially the White House, so it seems unlikely that the Federal government would ever support a national stay-at-home order.  

And even if the government did issue such an order, it's unlikely that most Americans would comply with it.  We had our shot to control and crush the coronavirus with lockdowns, and we flubbed it. 

But there's a much simpler measure the Federal government could get behind that would make a big difference: A national mandate for Americans to wear masks.

According to many studies, ubiquitous mask-wearing radically reduces coronavirus transmission (see, for example, the Goldman Sachs analysis below). Mask wearing also gives people the freedom to resume more of their normal lives, and, therefore, preserves more economic activity.

Mask wearing effect on coronavirus

Goldman's economics team estimates that a national mask mandate would significantly increase the percentage of Americans who wear masks.

More importantly — compared to another lockdown of similar effectiveness — a mask mandate would preserve 5% of GDP. 

In other words, if only he were able to swallow his pride and order Americans to wear masks, President Trump might be able to singlehandedly boost the US economy. — HB

Is Parler — the conservative-friendly "free speech" social media platform — already banning users?

Mainstream conservatives such as Sen. Ted Cruz and far-right activists such as self-described "proud Islamophobe" Laura Loomer have touted the new social media platform Parler as a safe space for right-of-center voices marginalized by the "techo-fascists" who run Twitter and Facebook.

Parler is supposed to support "free speech," whereas established platforms like Twitter and Facebook supposedly restrict it.

But according to TechDirt, Parler is already banning some left-of-center users. (I reached out to Parler for comment, but have not heard back yet.)

Parler describes itself as a "non-biased free speech driven entity," but also acknowledges that its "interactions are subject to guidelines; and when you respect them, you are free to participate wholly." Its terms of service plainly state that it "may remove any content and terminate your access to the Services at any time and for any reason or no reason." And here's how Parler's CEO described their policies last night in a tweet. 

That doesn't sound much different than any of the platforms such as Youtube, which caused a stir yesterday by banning some white nationalist and alt-right channels

As I've written for Business Insider, there are good reasons to not demand that billionaire tech bros become the arbiters of truth and acceptable discourse. But if Parler's mission is to bring back the wild west of the internet, its own rules appear to be designed to prevent that from happening. — AF


IDEA OF THE DAY 

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Nothing is solved until kids return to school. There are 32 million American households with school-age children, and more than 50 million kids attend US public schools, and we have no plan for them. 

Recovery remains a pipe dream unless kids go to school. Normal life can't begin until kids go to school. A deservedly scathing column from the New York Times' Michelle Goldberg lays out how we've neglected and botched the most important economic question of the pandemic. 

Americans are being summoned back to work. Great! But where are their kids supposed to go while they tend bar and install furnaces? 

School districts are talking about having kids spend a couple of days a week in the classroom — at most — to ensure social distancing. They're proposing to rely instead on remote learning, which is a disaster, and steals future economic productivity and happiness from our children. Has there been a crash program to find extra classroom space so kids could go back four days instead? Has there been an emergency appropriation so schools can hire temporary aides and thus reduce classroom sizes? We solve nothing till we solve this, and we're barely trying. — DP


BUSINESS & ECONOMY

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Uber is in talks to buy Postmates. It failed to buy GrubHub earlier this year, reportedly because of antitrust concerns. Postmates is much smaller and wouldn't attract as much regulator scrutiny. Uber's reportedly bidding $2.6 billion. 

Coronavirus surge could drag US into an L or W shaped recession. Bank of America says a V-shaped recovery is looking less likely because the pandemic is spreading so wildly.


LIFE

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LeBron wanted to go to the Knicks back in 2010. But of course the incompetently run NYC NBA team botched the negotiations, and so LeBron made The Decision to go to Miami. 

For sale: A New Zealand town modeled on the Wild West. You can buy Mellonsfolly Ranch, with its double-door saloon and robbable bank, for $7.5 million.


THE BIG 3*

Hugh Jackman X men reunion

German officials were so alarmed by Trump's calls with Merkel that they kept them secret. According to CNN's report, Trump spent the calls haranguing the German leader and even called her "stupid." 

A North Carolina racetrack owner offered a "Bubba rope" for sale. The racist stunt was widely condemned, and cost the track its races and sponsors.

Ryan Reynolds crashed Hugh Jackman's X-Men Zoom reunion. And he brought Sophie Turner with him.

*The most popular stories on Insider today.

Thank you for reading! Please let us know what you think. If we think other readers will enjoy your note, we'll publish it! henry@insider.com and dplotz@businessinsider.com.

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4 winning trades for earnings — Finding hidden market gems — V-shaped rebound?

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Dear Readers,

Depending on which Wall Street titan you ask, the US economy is either sprinting towards a sharp V-shaped summer rebound, or limping towards a more gradual, drawn-out recovery.

In one corner you have Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, who's all-in on what he calls a "big V" snap back to economic normalcy in the next couple months.

In the other you have Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. While he claims his more sluggish forecast is also V-shaped, he acknowledges it'll face serious hurdles into year-end and 2021. That outlook jibes with his view that the stock market's recent rally off lows has gotten overdone, largely because of economic overoptimism.

If these heavyweights can't come to a clear consensus, it's no wonder markets have been whipsawed by every new economic-reopening headline, positive or not. And to make matters more confusing for investors, certain sectors and companies have been thrown for a loop by factors not directly tied to an economic recovery.

If you aren't yet a subscriber to Investing Insider, you can sign up here.

Last week, bank shares soared on news a financial-crisis-era regulation had been rolled back, only to plunge the following day after the Fed said it will suspend buybacks and limit dividends across the industry.

Facebook has also been a lightning rod for shifting investor whims. It shed roughly $60 billion of market value across just two days as high-profile advertisers backed away — then climbed sharply once again, with traders seemingly unperturbed.

Confusing times call for clarity, and the Investing team at Business Insider is here to unpack the ever-changing market landscape. See below for our best stories of the week, including a wide array of recommendations, strategies, and tips for navigating uncertainty.

Thanks for reading!

-- Joe


Join Business Insider on July 8 at 12 p.m. ET for "Planning for the Future in Uncertain Times," a free digital event and part of the Master Your Money series. Presented by Fidelity, it will explore components of a strong financial plan and how to adjust it given recent events.

Click here to register.


Finding hidden gems with a 99th percentile investor

aram green clearbridge

Fund manager Aram Green specializes in finding promising companies that are about to start getting a lot more attention. His ClearBridge Select Fund has long been one of the strongest performers in the space, as it's doubled its benchmark over the last five years and won a five-star rating from Morningstar.

Green shared with Business Insider a series of surprising post-coronavirus bets in stocks that have either fallen too far due to temporary problems, or escaped harm that investors once expected.

Read the full story here:

Aram Green has crushed 99% of his stock-picking peers over the last 5 years. He details his approach for finding hidden gems — and shares 6 underappreciated stocks poised to dominate in the future.


4 winning trades for upcoming earnings season

trader screen

Second-quarter earnings season will kick off in July, with investors eager to see how the wide-reaching influence of the COVID-19 outbreak will continue to affect corporations.

Business Insider spoke with three experts who laid out where they think investors should be looking and putting their money ahead of likely market fluctuations. Some of the recommendations are pegged to industry fundamentals, while others look to capitalize on pricing dislocations created by post-coronavirus market turbulence.

Read the full story here:

We spoke with 3 financial experts, who said to make these 4 trades right now to get ahead of surprising gains when earnings season starts next month


The shift one real-estate investor made to start succeeding

Jacob Blackett

Jacob Blackett — the CEO of Holdfolio and founder of SyndicationPro — decided he'd give real-estate investing a try after seeing a fix-and-flip seminar advertised on a late-night infomercial. After he lost approximately $70,000 on his first deals, Blackett switched strategies.

As he gained experience, he fine-tuned his approach to alleviate the large tax bills he was incurring. Today Blackett sports a portfolio worth about $188.4 million with 1,040 units.

Read the full story here:

From a late-night infomercial to a 1,040-unit empire worth $188 million, how Jacob Blackett perfected his real-estate-investing strategy after losing $70,000 on his first deals


Stock pick central

Seeking experts who are willing to name names? Look no further:


Chart of the week

Screen Shot 2020 06 26 at 3.13.38 PM

If the stock market this year has felt extraordinarily topsy-turvy, the chart above shows it's been exactly that. From the fastest bear market in history to the torrid recovery since, the S&P 500 and VIX — which generally trade inversely to one another — have been all over the place.

Julian Emanuel, the chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, has crunched data going back to 1990 and concluded that a fresh round of stock-market selling could be in the cards. 

Click here for more details


Quote of the week

"If they get the market to a level where it wouldn't be but for their buying, then does that mean that markets are dependent on the Fed buying forever? What happens if they stop and will they stop doing it forever?"

— Howard Marks, billionaire co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, on the Fed's monetary stimulus efforts

 
 
 
 
 
 
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[Whitepaper] Your Guide to Identity from Roku

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Understand why marketers need identity resolution -
"Business Insider Intelligence FYI" is part of your subscription to the Business Insider Intelligence Marketing Newsletter.
Business operations in 2020 requires a company to have a clear identity. To help forge this identity, Roku has put together a robust guide called An Identity First-Approach to Advertising.

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Today the most strategic brands are focused on resolving identity. A broad confluence of forces, from privacy regulations to the economics of data, are pushing the industry toward identity – and as a result, a single customer view has never been more important.
 
As a follow up to our e-guide, we have compiled a complete resource on identity. Download the free whitepaper: An Identity-First Approach to Advertising.
 
What you can expect:
  • An in-depth look at the industry – what's pushing us toward an identity-driven future
  • Opportunities and challenges for marketers - on both the buy and sell-side
  • What it means to resolve identity and how to apply it to your media plan
 
Download the whitepaper
 
© 2020 Roku, Inc. All rights reserved. ROKU, the ROKU Logo, OneView Ad Platform, ROKU TV, ROKU POWERED, OneView, "Streaming Stick," "HAPPY STREAMING" and "NOW THIS IS TV" are trademarks and/or registered trademarks of Roku, Inc. in the United States. 1155 Coleman Ave, San Jose, CA 95110
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Disney Plus: All your questions answered about Disney's ad-free streaming service

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BUSINESS INSIDER
 
 
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Disney Plus: All your questions answered about Disney's ad-free streaming service
 
 
Disney Plus: All your questions answered about Disney's ad-free streaming service
 
Disney Plus is an on-demand, ad-free streaming service for Disney fans. Here's everything you need to know, from price to shows and movies included.
 
 
 
 
 
4 Marvel Cinematic Universe movies aren't available to stream on Disney Plus. Here's why.
 
 
4 Marvel Cinematic Universe movies aren't available to stream on Disney Plus. Here's why.
 
Rights issues prevent some Marvel Cinematic Universe movies from streaming on Disney Plus. Some never will unless a deal is reached.
 
 
 
 
 
Microsoft just released top streamers Ninja and Shroud from their contracts as it shutters Mixer, after spending millions on exclusive deals with them
 
 
Microsoft just released top streamers Ninja and Shroud from their contracts as it shutters Mixer, after spending millions on exclusive deals with them
 
Both Ninja and Shroud reportedly made tens of millions of dollars from Microsoft's Mixer. Now that it's shutting down, they're free agents once again.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kanye West's Yeezy brand is entering into a multi-year partnership with Gap. Take a look at how the hip-hop artist built and spends his fortune, from a $3.8 million car collection to nearly $300,000 worth of livestock.
 
 
Kanye West's Yeezy brand is entering into a multi-year partnership with Gap. Take a look at how the hip-hop artist built and spends his fortune, from a $3.8 million car collection to nearly $300,000 worth of livestock.
 
Kanye West worked at a Gap store as a teenager in Chicago. The brand announced it was "excited to welcome Kanye back to the Gap Family."
 
 
 
 
 
The 50 best TV show seasons of all time, according to critics
 
 
The 50 best TV show seasons of all time, according to critics
 
Shows like "Breaking Bad" and "The Wire" consistently won over critics, and their best seasons set a standard for what great TV looks like.
 
 
 
 
 
Kanye West is teaming up with Gap to create a new Yeezy clothing collection that is expected to hit stores in 2021
 
 
Kanye West is teaming up with Gap to create a new Yeezy clothing collection that is expected to hit stores in 2021
 
The rapper turned fashion designer could be the answer to Gap's problems after years of sliding sales.
 
 
 
 
 
How Lin-Manuel Miranda's non-stop work ethic from a young age made 'Hamilton' one of the most successful musicals of all time
 
 
How Lin-Manuel Miranda's non-stop work ethic from a young age made 'Hamilton' one of the most successful musicals of all time
 
Miranda's blend of musical theater and hip-hop has transformed musical theater as we know it. Here's how he got his start, and how he continues to aim higher every day.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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