A look at the timeline of events leading up to the current tensions in the South China Sea by on Oct 29, 2015, 1:16 PM Advertisement
 The South China Sea is once again at the center of international attention following the U.S. decision on Oct. 27 to send a warship within 12 nautical miles of Chinese-held islands in disputed waters. This was not unexpected; Washington has long been saying for that it would do so at the time of its choosing. It is now China's turn to react. Maritime disputes in the Pacific Rim carry a great significance in terms of the regional balance of power, and the South China Sea has become the most visible area of tension. Stratfor has been monitoring these waters closely and below is a selection of key analyses on the subject. Together, they explain the foundations of current — and future — tensions in the Pacific. SEE ALSO: China: We will take 'all necessary' measures in response to US Navy patrols of disputed South China Sea Great Power Politics in the South China Sea  Oct. 26, 2015: Beijing does fear one thing in the South China Sea: the involvement of Japan. Tokyo, long a passive power in the Pacific Rim, is now embarking on the long process of reasserting itself. If Japan decides to become more involved in the South China Sea, China’s strategy will become significantly more complicated. Recent signs indicate this may be starting. Tokyo recently carried out search-and-rescue drills with the Philippines, as well as other exercises with Southeast Asian states, flying an EP3 out of Palawan over parts of the South China Sea. Japan is also negotiating a visiting forces agreement with Manila to allow Japanese ships and planes to refuel and resupply in the Philippines. It is also offering to fund and supply ships and aircraft to the Philippine and Vietnamese coast guards and navies. And Tokyo and the United States have agreed in principle to carry out joint patrols in the South China Sea, perhaps as early as next year.
Ending Taiwan's Broad South China Sea Claims  Oct. 2, 2015: The United States sees Taiwan, along with nations such as Japan, as allies to counterbalance a rising China. In the past altering island claims would have been anathema for a Taiwanese Kuomintang-controlled government that has steadfastly upheld the "One China Principle," which maintains that mainland China and Taiwan are part of a single entity with competing governments. But Taiwan's opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has a strong chance of winning the January 2016 presidential election. With few ties to the mainland and little interest in maintaining the One China narrative, a DPP administration could conform with U.S. wishes and, in doing so, alter the South China Sea strategy of both Taipei and Beijing.
Forecasting Japan: China Rises  Sept. 29, 2015: Washington's strategic imperatives in the Pacific will not change, but its methods will. The United States will transition gradually in the coming years toward indirect and less costly ways of enforcing its writ. This will mean devolving responsibility to regional partners such as the Philippines, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. The United States' shift is already beginning to push its allies in East Asia to become much more proactive in defending their security interests. Japan is at the forefront of this movement. In late 2012, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched an initiative to revive Japan's regional economic, diplomatic and military standing. Since that time, Japan has made strides in regional diplomacy and military expansion and normalization. Still, to be successful, Japan will need to dramatically expand its efforts.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
| 
0 comments:
Post a Comment