The 10 biggest risks the world faces in 2016 by Elena Holodny on Jan 4, 2016, 9:01 AM Advertisement
 The Middle East is vulnerable. ISIS has become the most powerful terrorist organization. The US' geopolitical strength continues to decay. And Europe is seeing increased economic and political problems. "And so, in 2016, conflict intensifies," Ian Bremmer, the head of Eurasia Group, and Cliff Kupchan write in the firm's annual list of top risks. "This all means a dramatically more fragmented world in 2016 with more intra-, inter-, and extra-state conflict than any point since World War II." Still, Eurasia Group analysts don't think this means we're on the precipice of World War III. After all, the world's biggest economic powers are reluctant to plunge into the fight. But nevertheless, it's clear that geopolitics are about to shake up global order. We've put together Bremmer and Kupchan's top 10 risks for 2016, along with key explanations and — bonus — a list of red herrings. SEE ALSO: Russia has a 'plan B' for Syria that would allow it to 'redefine the international order' 1. The hollow alliance  "The trans-Atlantic partnership has been the world's most durable and significant alliance, underpinning the global economic order and bolstering peace and stability for nearly seventy years," write Bremmer and Kupchan. "But it is now weaker, and less relevant, than at any point since the Marshall Plan. In 2016, the transatlantic alliance will be a hollow one." This trend has been developing for some time. The rise of China and other emerging markets has created a diverse set of threats and opportunities for developed nations, American unilateralism, and European weakness. Source: Eurasia Group
2. Closed Europe  "Europe's divisions are nothing new. They've defined Europe's challenges for decades. But in 2016, they will reach a crucial point as an identity crisis emerges between open Europe and closed Europe — and a combination of inequality, refugees, terrorism, and grassroots political pressures pose a fundamental challenges to the principles on which the European Union was founded," Bremmer and Kupchan write. Additionally, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has been the biggest advocate of the "Open Europe," will see her political position weakened this year. This is largely due her welcoming of refugees into Germany, a decision that was neither popular at home nor abroad. Source: Eurasia Group
3. The China footprint  It's no secret that China's economy is huge. And this year, it will start advancing its interests via mega-projects like the new "Silk Road" and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. "Here is the risk: Many countries all over the world now recognize that China is both the most important and uncertain player for a variety of critical outcomes. This is unnerving those that are more exposed to China than ever before ... but aren't ready for this change, don't understand or agree with Chinese priorities, and won't know how to react to this new state of affairs," argue Bremmer and Kupchan. Source: Eurasia Group
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