Dispatch
Vibes meet reality
The striking disconnect between the performance of the economy and how people feel about it has been one of the biggest stories of 2023.
The data has been pointing toward a soft landing, wherein the Federal Reserve manages to get inflation under control without a recession or sharp spike in unemployment, for some time now.
Inflation has fallen, gas prices have dropped, unemployment is at historically low levels, consumer spending has stayed resilient, and the economy has kept growing. Oh, and stocks just hit a record high, largely because investors have baked in a soft landing.
And yet, throughout the year, whenever Americans have been asked about how they feel about the economy, well, they’ve said it sucks.
Maybe it’s the cost of groceries. Maybe it’s having to pay off their student loans again. Maybe it’s the housing market. Maybe it’s just the vibes.
But as we prepare to start a new year, there’s evidence that perception is starting to catch up to reality.
A consumer sentiment indicator increased sharply last month, while a closely watched measure of inflation showed a month-on-month decline, the first since the earliest months of the pandemic.
The economy still has its challenges. There are still lots of Americans struggling. And there’s still lots that could go wrong, starting with continued weakness in China.
But for now, it seems many US consumers will start 2024 starting to feel a little bit better about the future.
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