Instant Alert: Get ready for the first close look at the true cost of Google’s moonshots

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Get ready for the first close look at the true cost of Google's moonshots

by Jillian D'Onfro on Feb 1, 2016, 12:17 PM

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Today's the day: Get ready for the first earnings report where Google parent company Alphabet will break up its quarterly financial results into two categories, "Google" and "Other Bets."

That means that we'll get a better idea of how much money Google is actually pouring into its longer-term efforts like self-driving cars, internet-bearing balloons, and bio-tech though not on an individual project basis).  

Analysts from Deutsche Bank predict annual losses between $3 billion and $6 billion for several years, though research firm Pacific Crest put the annual losses at a more modest $1.5 billion.  

With those moonshot projects separated out, Wall Street hopes to see larger operating margins for Google proper, which contains its cash cow search and advertising business and YouTube, but also its hardware division, enterprise cloud offering, and its app store, Play.

Those latter businesses all fall into core Google's "Other revenue" category, which investors will be paying close attention to, since investors see cloud and Play in particular as increasingly important opportunities, and we'll get a better idea of their size with the moonshot businesses stripped away.

Although YouTube will still get lumped into Google's site revenues, analysts will be looking for color about the video service on the earnings call. Research firm eMarketer estimates that YouTube ad revenue grew 40.6% last year, reaching $4.28 billion worldwide.

Via Yahoo Finance, here's what analysts are expecting:

  • Q4 adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $8.09, up from $6.88 in Q4 2014 
  • Q4 Revenue: $20.77 billion, up ~15% from $18.1 billion in the year-ago period

For Google's core ads business, important numbers to pay attention to will be, as always, cost per click (how much Google can charge for its ads) and paid clicks (how many times people click those ads). Specifically, investors want to see Google narrowing the gap between what it can charge for desktop ad clicks versus mobile ad clicks.

eMarketer expects that mobile will represent 61.1% of Google's total net ad revenues worldwide.

SEE ALSO: 13 times Google handled something in the most ... 'Google-y' way possible


 
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