NATE SILVER: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses by Andy Kiersz on Feb 1, 2016, 1:29 PM Advertisement
 The polling gurus at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight have been tracking the odds of different candidates winning in the early primary and caucus races. FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race they forecast: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress. Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, both of the models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared to 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida), and 1% for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. The polls-only model has the same order for the top four candidates, but with slightly better odds for the front-runner: Trump is forecast to have a 54% chance of winning, compared to 33% for Cruz, 11% for Rubio, and 1% for Carson. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the polls-plus model gives Clinton a 67% chance of winning. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) is projected to have a 33% chance, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) has a less-than 1% chance. Things look even better for Clinton in the polls-only model, with a 72% chance of victory, compared to 28% for Sanders and a still less-than 1% chance for O'Malley. We'll find out who wins, for real, Monday night. SEE ALSO: POWER RANKINGS: Here's who has the best chance at being our next president
| 
0 comments:
Post a Comment