Instant Alert: DO OR DIE: Republicans have just hours left before the final vote on their massive tax bill

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DO OR DIE: Republicans have just hours left before the final vote on their massive tax bill

by Bob Bryan on Dec 1, 2017, 10:40 AM

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  • The Senate is aiming for a final vote on the gigantic Republican tax bill on Friday afternoon.
  • While Republicans are still arguing over details, it appears they have enough votes.
  • The bill would make huge changes to business and individual taxes.


The final vote on the massive Senate Republican tax bill is fast approaching on Friday as GOP leaders scrambled to make last-minute changes to their bill.

A vote on Friday would come just three weeks after the bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), was introduced.

Republicans appear to have the votes to pass the TCJA, but the situation is still fluid. Sen. John Cornyn, the second-ranking Senate Republican, said Friday morning that Republicans had enough votes to pass it. Sen. Bob Corker, a Republican holdout on the TCJA, said the bill would likely get through with or without his vote.

"I realize that there’s probably enough votes right now to pass it," Corker told reporters.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is attempting to appease deficit hawks, moderates, and members concerned about small business all while keeping the TCJA within Senate rules.

As the day rolls on, we'll be following along live, so check back for updates.

Debate begins and a quick recap

Debate on the tax bill is expected to lead off with statements from the party leaders. The first amendment votes are scheduled for 11 a.m. ET.

The Senate will resume the drama that was suspended on Thursday, when GOP leaders called it a night to try and figure out the last-minute changes to their bill.

A final vote was possible Thursday night, but Republican leaders hit a snag when the Joint Committee on Taxation — the official congressional scorekeeper — released an analysis that showed the bill would only increase GDP 0.8% over 10 years.

The analysis also showed the bill would grow the federal deficit by $1 trillion over that timeframe even when accounting for that growth.

The analysis renewed concerns from Sens. Bob Corker and Jeff Flake about the legislation's potential effect on the deficit.

The pair's idea of a trigger that would increase federal revenue was ruled impermissible by the Senate parliamentarian, a kind of umpire for Senate rules, sending Republican leaders back to the drawing board.

McConnell and leadership got a boost when Sens. Ron Johnson and Steve Daines, who had been on the fence, said on Friday that they would support the bill. Johnson told Wisconsin radio station WISN that his support gave Republicans enough votes to pass the bill even without Corker and Flake.

Check here for a full recap of Thursday night's action»



Politics: Here's who Mitch McConnell needs to win over

While it appears that McConnell may have already secured the necessary 50 votes (with Vice President Mike Pence breaking the tie) with the addition of Johnson and Daines, here are some GOP senators on the fence.

  • Bob Corker and Jeff Flake: The most unlikely votes for McConnell to get. These two are worried about the impact of the bill on the federal deficit. They had proposed a "trigger" to increase taxes if the bill did not deliver economic growth. After the Senate parliamentarian ruled that provision ineligible, Corker said he wanted more than $350 billion in additional revenue in the bill.
  • Susan Collins: Collins introduced a slew of amendments ,including one that would reinstate part of the state and local tax deduction, that she said would need to be added to win over her support. She also wants the Alexander-Murray Obamacare stabilization passed along with the tax bill.
  • Marco Rubio and Mike Lee: The pair introduced an amendment that would raise the corporate tax rate to 22% in order to make the child tax credit more generous. It is unclear if the pair would vote for the bill without the amendment.
  • Ron Johnson and Steve Daines: Originally, it appeared that they were accepting of a 20% pass-through deduction rate — then they needed 23%. Who's to say they may not ask for more?



Process: Here's what's on tap

The bill is required to go through 20 hours of debate, split evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

As debate starts on Friday, there is roughly seven hours of debate left. After debate concludes, the Senate will have what is known as a vote-a-rama in which members will consider a slew of amendments in succession.

If senators use the full allotted time for debate, that would push the vote-a-rama to around 5 or 6 p.m ET. Republican can also choose to forgo their time, which would move the vote-a-rama up to about 2 p.m. ET if Democrats decide to use all of their debate time.

After the vote-a-rama, McConnell would submit the text of the finished bill as a substitute amendment, replacing the original bill text, and the final vote would take place.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider


 
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