Ecommerce spending growth will decline in the coming years, but it will still grow faster than overall retail

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Boomtimes for worldwide ecommerce spending may be coming to an end, but the numbers still look pretty darn good. Global growth in retail ecommerce sales will decline to 12.2% this year—less than half the average over the past decade—but solid low double-digit growth rates will endure for the next several years. This slower growth rate will still amount to over half a trillion new ecommerce dollars every year.

Until last year, worldwide ecommerce spending growth had exceeded 20% every year since we began tracking it in 2011. In 2020, the pandemic paused what would have been an organic slowdown, and public health conditions in many countries boosted the ecommerce growth cycle. Amazingly, growth actually accelerated in numerous markets, despite recessionary economic conditions.

2020's surge in ecommerce bled into 2021 just as we projected, but growth still dipped to 16.3% last year (we had forecast 16.8% in May 2021). This year, we anticipate growth rates in most countries will be...

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